MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a goal to produce 662 million tonnes of coal annually by 2050, as outlined in a newly endorsed industry development plan. This target is part of the revised coal expansion strategy, with current production at roughly 443 million tonnes in 2024. The government ratified the plan through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting long-term benchmarks for coal output, exports, and industry growth.
The strategy presents four potential pathways leading to 2050. In the primary scenario, production is projected to reach 530.1 million tonnes by 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes by 2036, culminating at 662 million tonnes in 2050. The alternative scenarios feature lower 2050 production figures, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes under the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production goals, Russia has set export targets. Under the primary scenario, coal exports are forecasted at 266.7 million tonnes by 2030, increasing to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036 and reaching 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reported a 7.2% growth in Russian coal exports during the first eight months of 2026. The plan encompasses both domestic consumption and international sales.
Production and export objectives detailed
The government’s plan advocates maintaining existing mining capacities while expanding coal resource development. It emphasizes a greater role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which accounted for 48.3% of national output in 2024. By 2050, this share is expected to grow to between 53.9% and 56.7%. Russia’s coal reserves are reported to exceed 273 billion tonnes.
Additional targets focus on coal processing and mining techniques. Processed coal, excluding lignite, made up 58.9% of production in 2024. The plan projects this figure to increase to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining, which accounted for 78.4% of output in 2024, is expected to rise to between 82% and 85% in the long-term. The document also highlights goals related to productivity, technological upgrades, safety improvements, and environmental measures.
Coal development plan extends through 2050
Russia will implement the program in three phases. The first phase, through 2030, focuses on boosting production and supporting the industry. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, emphasizes coal use efficiency, processing technology, and regional logistics. The final phase covers 2037 to 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee progress alongside federal and regional bodies, with annual reports due to the Ministry of Economic Development under government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the updated strategy during a government session on September 21. It replaces Russia’s previous coal industry plan from 2020, which was set to run through 2035. Novak indicated the plan forecasts a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with an overall multiplier effect nearing 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne target remains a scenario rather than an unconditional forecast.