ROME / RankWire.AI / – Global cereal output for 2026 is projected at 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease from the previous year’s record. The Food and Agriculture Organization noted that this total would still rank as the second-largest harvest ever. The latest forecast is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the July estimate. This decline amounts to 61.1 million tonnes annually and marks the most significant year-on-year drop since 2018.
Maize production globally is now estimated at 1.309 billion tonnes, influenced by weaker crop prospects that lowered earlier figures. Heat waves and drought conditions during summer adversely affected yields in key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Meanwhile, official estimates led to smaller downward revisions for India and Paraguay. Argentina and Brazil, however, saw better-than-expected yields, contributing to a projected above-average maize harvest in 2026 for both countries.
Wheat production is now forecast at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from the previous estimate. Higher yield expectations resulted in projections for Canada and Morocco rising by roughly 1.5 million tonnes each. Forecasts for Russia and Ukraine also improved, though dry weather led to reductions in the EU and UK. Despite these upward revisions, global wheat output is expected to be 3.8% below 2025 levels, maintaining its position as the second-largest crop on record.
Maize declines contribute to downward revision of global cereal outlook
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is projected at 553.1 million tonnes (milled basis), reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised 2025/26 record. The latest estimate benefits from Myanmar’s improved figures and strong main-crop yields in Sri Lanka, which offset reductions seen in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings hit multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates total global cereal consumption reaching 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, a slight increase of 0.2% over the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to rise, whereas wheat use is forecasted to decline from last season’s high. World rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Feed requirements continue to be significant, with barley consumption in China and maize use in the United States playing key roles.
Global cereal stock levels remain comfortably high despite slight decreases
At the end of the 2027 seasons, world cereal stocks are expected to total 947.2 million tonnes, which is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous projection but 1.8 million tonnes above the opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 31.6%, slightly lower than the 31.9% recorded last season. Reserve levels of wheat are expected to grow in Russia and Ukraine, while stocks of maize and barley have declined, impacting the overall stock outlook.
Cereal trade worldwide in 2026/27 is estimated at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from prior estimates. Although higher, this figure remains below the record volumes of 2025/26. The increased trade is mainly driven by maize, with Argentina expected to export up to 39 million tonnes. International rice trade is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes for 2026, with total rice shipments still 1.9% below the 2025 peak.